Summary:

• Itaú Asset Management, part of Brazil's largest private bank Itaú Unibanco, recommends allocating 1% to 3% of portfolios to Bitcoin in 2026.
• The bank argues Bitcoin can help diversify portfolios and hedge currency risk, even after a volatile year for the asset.
• Itaú Asset has recently expanded its crypto focus, including launching a dedicated digital asset unit.

Brazil's largest private bank is offering a measured but notable endorsement of Bitcoin's role in modern portfolios. Itaú Asset Management, the investment arm of Itaú Unibanco, has advised investors to consider allocating between 1% and 3% of their portfolios to Bitcoin in 2026.

The recommendation was outlined in a new research note published by the firm, where Itaú Asset's Renato Eid pointed to a shifting global environment marked by geopolitical strain, uncertain monetary policy, and persistent currency risks. In that context, Bitcoin is framed not as a speculative bet, but as a complementary asset that can help balance traditional portfolios.

The advice arrives after a turbulent year for Bitcoin, underscoring the bank's focus on long-term portfolio construction rather than short-term price performance.

A Volatile Year, Still a Strategic Role

Bitcoin's price action in 2025 has been anything but calm. The asset started the year close to $95,000, slipped toward $80,000 during the tariff crisis, surged to an all-time high of $125,000, and later retreated back near $95,000.

For many investors, that kind of movement raises questions about Bitcoin's suitability as a portfolio component. Itaú Asset does not dismiss this volatility. Instead, the bank argues that volatility alone should not disqualify an asset from consideration, particularly when the allocation remains small and deliberate.

The research note frames Bitcoin's price swings as part of a broader risk profile that, when properly sized, can actually strengthen portfolio resilience rather than weaken it.

Currency Risk Hits Brazilian Investors Harder

Bitcoin's volatility has felt sharper for Brazilian investors than for many global peers. One reason is currency movement. The Brazilian real strengthened by roughly 15% this year, magnifying local losses when Bitcoin prices fell in dollar terms.

This dynamic has complicated crypto exposure for domestic investors, particularly those measuring returns in local currency rather than dollars. Itaú Asset acknowledged this reality directly, noting that Bitcoin's swings can be more pronounced when layered on top of foreign exchange effects.

Even so, the firm maintained that currency volatility itself strengthens the case for holding a small Bitcoin allocation over time.

Low Correlation, Measured Allocation

A central argument in Itaú's recommendation is Bitcoin's low correlation with traditional asset classes. According to the bank's internal data, BITI11 - its locally listed Bitcoin ETF - shows limited correlation with equities, fixed income, and other common portfolio components.

This lack of close correlation is key. Assets that move independently from one another can help smooth overall portfolio performance, even if each asset carries its own risks.

As Itaú Asset wrote:

The bank emphasized that the recommendation is not about aggressive positioning. Instead, it is about controlled exposure designed to complement - not replace - existing investment strategies.

Why the 1% to 3% Range Matters

The specific recommendation - between 1% and 3% - is not arbitrary. Itaú Asset presented this range as large enough to provide diversification benefits, but small enough to avoid overwhelming portfolio risk.

At 1%, Bitcoin's impact on overall volatility remains limited, while still offering exposure to its unique characteristics. At 3%, the potential diversification effect becomes more noticeable, though the bank stops short of advocating higher allocations given Bitcoin's price behavior.

This conservative framing reflects a broader shift in how large financial institutions are discussing digital assets. Rather than promoting bold allocations, banks are increasingly focusing on risk management, sizing, and long-term strategy.

Caution Remains Central

Despite the recommendation, Itaú Asset maintained a cautious tone throughout its research. The bank acknowledged Bitcoin's sharp drawdowns, unpredictable price cycles, and sensitivity to macro events. The emphasis on small allocations, low correlation, and long-term positioning reflects a desire to integrate Bitcoin responsibly rather than chase returns.

In that sense, the report reads less like an endorsement of Bitcoin itself and more like an endorsement of disciplined portfolio construction in a changing financial landscape.

Closing Thoughts

Itaú Asset Management's guidance to allocate 1% to 3% of portfolios to Bitcoin in 2026 marks a meaningful moment for digital assets in Latin America's largest economy. Coming from Brazil's largest private bank, the recommendation carries weight - not because it promises outsized returns, but because it frames Bitcoin as a practical, measured tool for diversification.

By grounding its case in correlation data, currency dynamics, and macro conditions, Itaú presents Bitcoin not as a headline-driven trade, but as a calculated addition to modern portfolios. The message is clear: even after a volatile year, Bitcoin's role in portfolio design is evolving - slowly, carefully, and with increasing institutional acceptance.